Why Game of Thrones is likely to win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series this year

For several weeks, audiences generally complained that nothing was happening this season on Game of Thrones. What those people failed to realize, is that there’s a difference between a show being slow and taking its time to build things up. After several episodes of building upon its various stories, Game of Thrones completely delivered these past couple of weeks, with the most epic battle in the show’s entire run and Daenerys training her dragon. While we still have the season finale to look forward to, and the Emmy nominations won’t even be announced for another month or so, I’m officially ready to predict Game of Thrones will win Outstanding Drama Series this year for three reasons:

1. HBO’s Overdue for Another Win

Only one HBO drama has ever won this award, The Sopranos for its fifth season and sixth season’s second half. Boardwalk Empire, True Blood, and not even Six Feet Under could ever nab the network another win. It’s clear that the Emmy’s don’t want to give this award to just any hot HBO drama. They want to give it to one that’s had a huge impact on society, has been consistently exceptional for several years, and has pushed the limits for what television and premium channels can do. Game of Thrones is that show, becoming HBO’s most iconic staple since The Sopranos.

2. Lack of Competition

Unlike last year when Game of Thrones had to go up against the unbreakable Breaking Bad, not to mention True Detective, the competition this year is significantly weaker.

The Emmy voters might give Mad Men a farewell hug via a win in the Drama Writing category and an overdue Best Actor win for Jon Hamm (fingers crossed). After winning four years in a row and then losing three years in a row, however, there’s no way they’re giving it a fifth win. The West Wing couldn’t come back, 30 Rock couldn’t come back on the comedy side, and Mad Men won’t come back either, even if it is considered the greatest drama series of all time.

Homeland underwent a huge creative resurgence this year, but it was still kicked out of Drama Series last year for its disappointing third season. Even if Emmy voters take it back in, they’re unlikely to welcome it with open arms.

House of Cards seemed like the preordained frontrunner, but its third season wasn’t nearly as good as its first and second seasons. Between Orange is the New Black, Bloodline, and Daredevil, most people would argue that it’s not even the best drama on Netflix, although it is the most “prestigious.”

Empire is a flavor of the month soap opera. It may get nominated, but it’s not nearly influential enough to bring the Emmy’s back to the broadcast networks.

As for Downton Abbey, forget about it.

Everything else, from The Affair to Better Call Saul, will just be lucky to get nominated.

3. There’s a Formula to Winning an Emmy

Emmy voters have repeated three different formulas since 2000 in the Best Drama category:

A) Four Wins in a Row – Mad Men and The West Wing.

B) One First Season Win – Lost and Homeland.

C) Finally Won For the Fifth Season – The Sopranos, Breaking Bad, and 24.

That last one especially applies to Game of Thrones, which is in its fifth season and is still going strong. Returning to the competition, I don’t see Mad Men breaking the all time record with a fifth Emmy, Homeland ever winning here again, House of Cards winning for this particular season, or Empire winning in its entire run. Statistics show that this is the year for Game of Thrones.

Granted, there are just as may reasons why the odds are against Game of Thrones, i.e. it’s a fantasy series. If it can’t win this year, though, it’s unlikely the show ever will. Let’s not let that happen!